TLDR
- Bitcoin Options 25 Delta Skew has flipped positive, indicating traders expect upside
- Short-dated contracts show strongest bullish sentiment with one-week expiries at +10.1%
- MicroStrategy has purchased 10,100 additional BTC for approximately $1.05 billion
- An analyst predicts this may be Bitcoin’s final bull market phase before a major correction
- Bitcoin is currently trading at around $106,600 after a slight recovery
Bitcoin has recently experienced some bearish price action, but options market data suggests traders remain optimistic about a potential rebound. The cryptocurrency, currently trading around $106,600, has shown resilience despite recent volatility as institutional interest continues to grow.
Bitcoin options traders are positioning themselves for a potential price increase, according to recent data from analytics firm Glassnode. The Options 25 Delta Skew, which compares the implied volatility of bearish positions (puts) and bullish positions (calls), has flipped positive across multiple expiration timeframes.
This indicator is particularly useful for understanding market sentiment. When positive, it suggests traders expect upward price movement or increased volatility favoring bullish outcomes.
The shift is most pronounced in short-term contracts. Options expiring within one week have seen the metric move dramatically from -2.6% to +10.1%, while one-month expiries have reversed from -2.2% to +4.9%.
What makes this development notable is its timing – occurring during a period when Bitcoin’s price has faced downward pressure. This contrarian positioning indicates that traders see the current price level as a potential entry point rather than a signal to sell.
Institutional Investment Continues
Meanwhile, institutional investment in Bitcoin continues to accelerate. MicroStrategy, led by Chairman Michael Saylor, has completed another major Bitcoin purchase.
The company acquired 10,100 BTC at a cost of approximately $1.05 billion. This latest purchase brings MicroStrategy’s total holdings to 592,100 BTC, with an overall cost basis of $41.84 billion.
This substantial investment reflects growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. MicroStrategy’s continued accumulation strategy has made it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
The company’s aggressive purchasing approach comes despite short-term price fluctuations, demonstrating a long-term belief in Bitcoin’s value proposition.
Analyst Predicts Market Cycle Conclusion
While options traders show near-term optimism, some analysts have different views on Bitcoin’s longer-term trajectory. One prominent analyst, known as ‘MrParaBULLic’ on social media platform X, has proposed that the current rally may represent the final phase of Bitcoin’s first true institutional cycle.
Using Elliott Wave theory, the analyst suggests Bitcoin is completing its fifth and final microwave in a classic five-wave impulse cycle. This technical analysis framework points to the current surge as potentially representing Wave 5, typically the last impulse move before a broader market reset.
The analyst anticipates Bitcoin could climb beyond $200,000 in the next five to eight months before experiencing a sharp reversal. This projected peak could be followed by a severe bear market that might push prices down to around $30,000-$35,000.
This forecast contradicts the notion that institutional adoption has fundamentally changed Bitcoin’s cyclical nature. The analyst points to historical patterns where previous bull runs in 2013, 2017, and 2021 were each followed by 80-90% drawdowns from their respective peaks.
Bitcoin currently trades at $106,600, having made a slight recovery in recent days. While short-term signals from the options market suggest bullish sentiment, market participants remain divided on longer-term projections.
The cryptocurrency continues to attract significant institutional investment despite these mixed signals. MicroStrategy’s latest billion-dollar purchase demonstrates ongoing institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
